Hi Chris and Tom,
I haven't seen this scenario personally, however here are a few thoughts that I hope you haven't tried/considered. Maybe one of them will lead you to something actually helpful ????
These are mostly based on various search results I am sure you have already found (e.g. https://windowsforum.com/threads/fixing-windows-11-remote-desktop-issues-after-24h2-update.352977/) but...
I assume you have also reviewed the reported KBs.
RDP Firewall Rules - Edge Traversal.
This is a random thought based on some of your senario statement.
Run this in powershel (as admin)
Get-NetFirewallPortFilter | Where-Object {$_.localport -eq 3389} | Get-NetFirewallRule
on both an affected and unafected machine and see if they are different - especially re
EdgeTraversalPolicy : Block
I doubt it will have an impact as you stated you have disabled Windows Firewall but ....
Change RDP to use TCP only
Again, your trace shows the TCP traffic so the fact that UDP may be enabled shouldn't be contributing but may be worth a try. There is a Local/GPO policy setting for "Select RDP transport Protocol" you can set to TCP only.
Change the RDP port
HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SYSTEM\CurrentControlSet\Control\Terminal Server\WinStations\RDP-Tcp\PortNumber
Just as a test - Reported in other searches as a potential work around ????
Play with/disable the "Select network detection on the server" options
I am not sure about this one as it reads more like it might help with maintiaing connection rather than establishing connection but again .... may be worth considering.
I am not sure if any of that will help but I will be interested if you find a solution.
Good luck